Will this be The Winter of Our Discontent?

     With apologies to Shakespeare this is a little preview of some of the emerging economic concerns that will start to focus the mind before the winter months give way. Much of what we will be dealing with in the months to come will be extensions of what we have been wrestling with for the past three years but there are some new issues that are rearing their ugly heads and that will complicate the
strategies that have been in place thus far.
     The three to focus on for the moment are inflation threats, the impact of long term unemployment and the impact of a new Congress with more deficit hawks than before. Up to this point the strategy from Congress, the Executive branch and the Federal Reserve has been basically in sync and focused on economic pump priming. There has been no real concern over inflation as deflation had seemed more
imminent only a few months ago. The issue of employment has been front and center for the entire recession although there has clearly been a limit as to  what could practically be done. The deficit hand wringing was universal but very few in Congress had anything approaching a mandate to do something about all this.
     Now there is some evidence developing that will force a new look at the inflation threat in the future. Reports from the regional Fed banks in Philadelphia and New York show that manufacturers are universally reporting an expectation of higher priced inputs and when that hits the economy there will be increased price pressure.
    The employment situation is vexing and there is about to be a real crisis for
those who have been without jobs for the longest period of time. Getting this group back into the work force will be a major undertaking. The deficit hawks will be put to the test but there has already been a rejection of the budget for next year.